Progress Report a Month in - 28/09/25

I am I to the 5rmth week of executing the original Core Playbook and its Companion Guide, but they have been revised yet again.

It turns out that the strategy wasn't as good as it initially seemed. It relied far too much on accumulating dry powder and waiting for a crisis before deploying tranches.

The question was raise, "what if that crisis doesn't happen in your lifetime?" 

This was a genuine concern, that while accumulating and waiting for specific market triggers before investing, what about the countless other opportunities to make returns?

The initial strategy was back tested using AI and available data from Yahoo Finance with results proving the strategy was viable in the event a market crash occurred.

The huge problem with that strategy is missing out at the mercy of a major financial crash.

ChatGPT helped craft the original strategy and I suppose it was mostly my own doing; having it focus on a major financial crisis and build the strategy around that focal point. But at the same time, I used Gemini to verify the strategy had reached a good standard and Gemini gave it a seal of approval with some minor tweaking issue.

It wasn't until I asked Gemini to analyse the playbook from a different point of view that it uncovered the fundamental flaw regarding losing out on opportunities while waiting for a crisis.

Gemini proposed to get market exposure through focusing most of my expendable income towards index funds. Then, in the background, accumulate a smaller percentage for opportunistic buys. This makes more sense, because I am getting exposure to markets and compounding with immediacy, and I also have money waiting in the wings to still make use of the previous crisis strategy.

Essentially, the only modification was how funds were deployed and for good reason.

The index fund my SIPP is invested in is doing okay. It has been roughly a month and it has already earned over £100 on the small deposit I've made. This, although potentially misleading, provides hope that utilising an index fund is probably the right way to go.

Picking individual stocks, the right stocks, is a little bit more involving. I have picked stocks at random and to be frank, they are underperforming. The one stock I was gifted by the platform for signing up and making a deposit, that stock is my top performer.

So I am going to use that stock and its stats as a measuring stick. Well, it was the plan. But I hear the balance sheet of a tech stock means different things in different industries; so what looks great for a semiconductor manufacturer might not look so great to a data centre.

I've a lot to learn.

Reallocation Plan

Step 1: Split Your Weekly Contribution

£350 weekly investable amount

Apply the Core & Tactical Sleeve split:

Core Global ETF 80% £280

Tactical Sleeve  

Cash/MMF 14% £49

Short Gilts 4% £14

Precious Metals 2% £7

Result: 

Your Core Portfolio is always compounding, and your Tactical Sleeve is steadily replenished for crisis deployment.

Step 2: Add Quarterly Review & Rebalance

Every Jan & Jul, check your Tactical Sleeve balance — if it’s above target (e.g. > 20% of portfolio), redirect more weekly flow to Core.

If it’s below target (e.g. after crisis deployment), top up Tactical Sleeve until back at target.

Step 3: Opportune Deployment Workflow

When Tier 1 triggers fire:

Deploy 25% of Tactical Sleeve into Core ETF + top convictions.

When Tier 2 triggers fire:

Deploy 50% of Tactical Sleeve in 2 or 3 tranches into Core ETF + top convictions.

When Tier 3 triggers fire:

Deploy 25% of remaining Tactical Sleeve  

Continue weekly Core contributions — don’t pause them.

Rebuild Tactical Sleeve automatically after each tranche deployment until full target is restored.

Step 4: Documentation & Tracking

Use Deployment Ledger Template to log every Tactical Sleeve tranche deployment.

Use Behavioural Log to record what you felt at each stage — this turns your own journey into proof-of-concept data for the Playbook.

Benefits of This Adjustment

Core always compounding: No risk of missing years of growth.

Tactical Sleeve systematically built: Always ready for the next opportunity without hoarding unnecessary cash.

Clean rebalancing discipline: Keeps portfolio aligned twice yearly.

Now to recap my understanding and make sure every piece clicks:

Reflection. 

On paper this is sound. Risk is controlled. Deploying all funds into random stocks is a recipe for disaster as I have proven with my previous picks.

An index fund provides exposure, and the common macro trend is that index funds go up over time. So, the Core Portfolio is aligned with a long gameplay. 

The Tactical Sleeve keeps things exciting with optionality to buy stocks when opportunities arise, make good returns, then get out (but not too early).

• £1 - £300,000 is hard work

• £1 - £300 is a 29,900% increase, so you need to literally 30,000x your investment. Luckily, few people start investing with one pound.

• £300 - £3,000 is a 900% increase, so you need to literally 9x your investment. Luckily, this is a reasonable starting point for a lot of people. It might feel like it is taking forever to 9x £300 to reach just £3,000

• £3,000 - £30,000 is also a 900% increase, but this time, your 9x equates to £27,000 rather than £2,700. So if you have built a strategy that gives you 9x return in 1-5 years and can replicated this year on year, you are doing well.

• £30,000 - £300,000 once again is a 900% increase, but this time your exact same 9x equates to £270,000. If it takes you 10 years to see these sorts of gains then surely, it has to be worth it

• £300,000 - £1,000,000 is just a 233.33% increase, or 2.3x on your £300k

Lets zoom out.

If you can save £100 per week and invest it, you already secure £5,200 per year. Over 15 years this is already £78,000. When we speculate on compounding interest of 32% per year, by the end of that 15 year cycle you reach £1,036,019.

Chances are, you won't achieve 32% consistent annual growth investing £100 per week into an index fund because they do not yield such high returns.

However, a £280 per week investment can result in £1,053,145 after 15 years with an annual return of 20%.

As you can see, the more you put in, the lower your interest needs to be to reach that million. Though, 20% per annum from an index fund is still a stretch.

I will be contributing £280 per week to an index fund with a hope of receiving a 10% annual return. This will give me around £504,138 after 15 years if I'm lucky.

The other £70 each week will be held as dry powder and deployed following the playbook strategy. This gives me the opportunity to make really good returns investing in respectable profitable and well managed companies.